Doug's Darkworld

War, Science, and Philosophy in a Fractured World.

Other aspects of the global warming discussion

with 11 comments

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The solution to global warming…it’s really not all that difficult.

A thoughtful reader asked a few questions about a previous global warming post. They are interesting questions, and more on point, they lead into some aspects of global warming that I haven’t talked about. So in the spirit of broadening the discussion, here we go:

OK… I am a skeptic, it is because there are many points of this I do not understand. I will not take up to much time let me ask a couple of questions, where real speak will be appreciated and not scientific lingo. How is Global Warming different then the receding of the icebergs way back after the ice age?

It’s different in several ways. For one thing we aren’t in an ice age, so the starting point is different. We don’t really know what triggers the end of ice ages, but were almost certain it’s not CO2, so that’s different. Most importantly though, both the speed and the extent of the current warming and CO2 rise is unprecedented in the last 400-600,000 years. This is what is alarming, we are heading into completely uncharted territory.

If China has signed and ratified Kyoto, why are they choosing to (apparently) ignore it? In 2004 the total greenhouse gas emissions from the People’s Republic of China were about 54% of the USA emissions. However, China is now building on average one coal-fired power plant every week, and plans to continue doing so for years. Various predictions see China overtaking the US in total greenhouse emissions between late 2007 and 2010. (Taken from Wikipedia) Is China going to be reprimanded by the UN for this?

Why is India (who signed and ratified the agreement) exempt from the agreement? (Again from Wikipedia) India signed and ratified the Protocol in August, 2002. Since India is exempted from the framework of the treaty, it is expected to gain from the protocol in terms of transfer of technology and related foreign investments.

Well, this gets into the politics of it all. Not sure I’m qualified to comment on the details of Kyoto, so just two general observations. The first would be, that if your town is on fire you fight the fire, you don’t stand around debating whose fault the fire is or argue about how effective your neighbour’s fire fighting methods are. Or if you do, you do so while fighting the fire. Usually when I see these sorts of arguments, it is assumed or even stated that the US needn’t do anything about global warming because these other countries aren’t “playing fair.” Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but that doesn’t stop the US from acting unilaterally.

The second point that should be made here is that total emissions aren’t really a fair comparison. What matters is emissions per capita. And by that token, the USA leaves everyone in the dust. Well, there’s a couple of tiny gulf states that do worse, but as far as major countries, no one holds a candle to the USA. So it’s a bit disingenuous for Americans to point the fingers at other countries, when by reasonable standards of comparison the USA is by far the worst culprit when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions.

Which leads to the question, should the USA cut back, or should other countries be allowed to catch up to the USA? Since the later is a catastrophic course of action, it seems clear that the USA should cut back. In fact some fair level of per capita greenhouse gas emissions should be agreed upon and enforced, but I’m not holding my breath. As for the UN, it pretty much does what the US tells it to do. At least when it comes to resolutions with real teeth. China has a veto too, so they could simply veto sanctions if the UN did try to apply them.

One final question… if the US goes to ethanol gas. I understand the emissions level will go down to nil. But I understand what we will save on emissions will be lst on the making of the fuel. Will that do anything (positive or negative) to global warming?

I don’t think ethanol is going to do much one way or the other. Which gets to the meat of it, what could be done to reduce American’s emissions of greenhouse gases? And the ugly truth is there’s an easy and simple way to dramatically reduce our greenhouse emissions. Conservation, the word that the energy industry has worked so hard to make a dirty word. If every family in American replaced one light bulb with a low wattage fluorescent bulb, that alone would make a huge difference. In other words, fuel economy standards for cars, power consumption standards for appliance, and retrofit standards for home sales would pretty much solve the problem. More to the point, the only difference most people would see is smaller bills for power and gas, and thus more money in their pockets.

Gee, seems like a good idea to me? However, there’s a fly in the ointment. The oil and gas industry is controlled by a tiny number of exceedingly rich people, and they lose money if people conserve power. And since in the US industry gets what it wants far more so than in the rest of the west, here we are pissing away energy and contributing to global warming like it’s nobody’s business. Remember, the energy industry is the largest industry on the planet, and their profits are dependent on how much energy people use. The more the merrier.

It’s also sad because if we did cut back, it’s not like the American economy world suffer. People would still spend the money they saved, so the energy industry would shrink but other industries would benefit. And even if people saved more money, that would help the banking industry and the economy as well. Sigh, but the energy and weapons industry basically run the USA government, especially the current administration. Once one understands that, American foreign and energy policy are a lot easier to understand.

(The above modified image is claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law. It is not being used for profit, has been modified extensively from the original, and is central to illustrating the post.)

Written by unitedcats

June 4, 2007 at 10:24 am

11 Responses

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  1. “Conservation, the word that…” Excellent post all round. From the quote on is the best part IMO because it lives in reality. Reality as in doable and in sense. Off topic a bit my skepticism is rooted in the all or nothing “chicken little” stuff. Recognize and react,sure steps with well thought out direction.Not leaps and bounds in random or presumed directions just to say we did something.

    in2thefray

    June 4, 2007 at 4:58 pm

  2. I want to thank you, for taking my questions seriously, and taking the time to explain. It was honest and upfront. I have printed it out so I can better understand it. And when I have more questions, I know where to go.

    Dave

    Dave

    June 4, 2007 at 7:22 pm

  3. You’re welcome, though understand some of the above is my opinion, and I’m sure some would disagree with some of what I said. Hopefully they will chime in.
    —Doug

    unitedcats

    June 4, 2007 at 8:57 pm

  4. Hi Doug,

    Sorry, I think you have the (CO2) cart before the (horse). Or to put it another way, I think the symptom is confused with the cause.

    I realize it’s trendy to claim that CO2 emissions are causing the earth to warm, but it’s a fact that the CO2 emissions are LAGGING the temperature changes, NOT preceding them.

    The fact is that the earth’s climate temperature changes are EXACTLY correlated to the cycles of the sun’s heat output. This isn’t my opinion, it’s the clear scientific evidence.

    Please click through my blogroll if you’re interested in learning more about the climate change we’re experiencing. There are lots of pages of information and graphs from real scientists, and it’s very interesting reading.

    Regards, Citizen

    Citizen

    June 5, 2007 at 5:48 am

  5. Yes, that’s a common claim, but certainly a minority opinion among scientists. The sun’s output has remained constant since 1978 when accurate satellite measurements of its output began, which is pretty hard to reconcile with the alarming increase in CO2 and global temperatures since then. See:
    It’s the Sun

    Thanks for dropping by, I will check out your blog when my time permits. —Doug

    unitedcats

    June 5, 2007 at 6:35 am

  6. Dont expect China to cooperate. They are building one new coal fired power plant per week, and have as much told the world to buzz off.
    India is stuck in permanent class system which garantees wood and coal use by growing billions.

    In a word.. hopeless.

    There will be lots of chat about ‘warming’ for the rich westerners to debate, but 90% of the world just DOES NOT HAVE A CHOICE.

    E

    ET

    June 5, 2007 at 6:36 am

  7. Real scientists who represent, what, 1% of the scientific community? Forgive my snarkiness, but “real scientists” can be found to explain just about everything from Bigfoot to why the Earth is only 4000 years old. The OVERWHELMING evidence in favor of humans contributing to GW is staggering, yet what is even more staggering are those that insist on trying to shut their eyes. Our planet is at stake here people, can we please wake the fizzle up?

    Andrew

    June 5, 2007 at 6:37 am

  8. In some ways, the warming alarmists remind me the french queen, who said “let them eat cake”..

    While the rich west sits on its high horse, they want to tell the rest of the world how to live.

    Certainly some of the wests ‘vision’ for the developing world would be good for the planet, but the world will do what it does. Unless we want to FORCE it on them by force (good luck).

    And lets not forget the ‘free’ world is but a tiny part of the total. Most just will NOT have any alternative, agruments of warming notwithstanding.

    And its unseasonably COLD here right now :)

    ET

    June 5, 2007 at 7:07 am

  9. “Blaming” India and China for global warming and thus conveniently allowing the USA to ignore Kyoto is misleading on any number of levels:

    Why should the US join Kyoto?

    unitedcats

    June 5, 2007 at 11:25 am

  10. global warming is becoming such a obvious problem that someone somewhere other than Al Gore needs to step up to help drive the bus!

    global warming

    August 19, 2007 at 6:16 am

  11. Very nicely done forum.
    http://srubibablo.com
    Congratulations!

    Survith

    November 30, 2007 at 5:37 am


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