Is the Phony War Almost Over?
Well, I’m in a terrible mood today. Looking at the news isn’t helping. So I thought I’d drop my usual cheery optimistic outlook on the world, and see what I can imagine if things get ugly. Maybe this will be cathartic, hopefully it won’t be prophetic. I still stick to my belief that when American tanks crossed into Iraq, we were in the run up to a world war. “The Phony War has begun” as one friend put it. Will the real war start this summer? This is my nightmare…
Seven Summer Days
Preamble: The violence in the occupied territories has spun out of control as Hamas shot its way back into power. American casualties continued to rise in Iraq and Afghanistan, with Washington increasingly blaming Iran. The violence on TV, and a few well publicized attacks against Christian institutions on the West Bank spark increasing calls from many western parties for someone to “do something.” Some vaguely worded but basically toothless UN resolutions are passed to no effect. Iran continues to defy US demands that it suspend its nuclear program.
Day One. On July fourth someone does something. The USA attacks Iran with one of the largest airstrikes in modern history, including the use of bunker busting nuclear weapons to destroy hardened nuclear sites. Israel simultaneously launches a full scale “humanitarian” intervention in the West Bank and Gaza strip. Images of Israeli tanks rolling into Palestinian territory, nuclear bombs going off in Iran, and Bush announcing the “final battle” in the “War on Terror” flood the media. “Unconditional surrender or we will use nucular weapons on you” is the choice Bush gives to the “terrorists…” Hezbollah, the Taliban, Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Al Qaeda are among those given this ultimatum.
Almost immediately there are anti-American demonstrations and attacks on Americans throughout the world wherever there are large Muslim populations, millions of people take to the streets in Pakistan and burn the US Embassy, and in Iraq the Maliki government and Army basically disappear. Iran and Hezbollah begin scattered rocket and missile fire against Israel and US installations in Iraq and on the Gulf coast, to little immediate effect.
On day two the American bombing campaign continues in Iran, the Iranian government doesn’t respond to Bush’s ultimatums. Al Sadr announces the creation of the “Islamic Republic of Iraq” and gives the Americans a counter ultimatum, call off their attack on Iran and begin pulling out of Iraq within 24 hours or he will call for war with America. Israeli troops swiftly move through the occupied territories, but Hamas and Fatah urban strongholds resist fiercely. De facto civil war breaks out in Lebanon. An Osama Bin Laden Tape is released announcing that retaliation against America will take place. The rocket fire from Hezbollah and Iran increases.
On day three Sadr announces “jihad” on America. Within an hour a small nuclear weapon is detonated over Sadr City, origin unknown. Iraq rises in full scale revolt against Americans, who dig into their fortified bases. The central Iranian government is still missing, but Revolutionary Guards units have seized local control throughout the country. In Pakistan, a military coup removes Musharraf from office and declares martial law. Rumours that fallout from the Sadr bomb drifted over the Green Zone or that an American ship has been sunk are denied by the White House.
Day four. Conventional American and Israeli bombing continues in Iran, Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon. Pictures of Muslim atrocities against westerners flood the air waves, few note that for every westerner killed, hundreds of Muslim civilians have been killed by western air strikes in Iran, Iraq, and Palestine. Pro and anti war demonstrators clash in several American cities. Pictures taken from Al Jazeera flood the media, apparently showing an American warship exploding. The Pentagon eventually announces that a US frigate was struck by a Chinese made Iranian silkworm missile on the second day of the war, exploding and sinking, with the loss of over 100 crew, the worst US Navy battle loss since World War Two.
Day Five. The USA vetoes a Chinese/Russian UN resolution calling for an immediate end to hostilities by all combatants. The bombing continues, the US striking Iranian oil facilities for the first time. The price of oil and gas, already rising, hits historic highs. Pakistan remains relatively calm, as does Afghanistan. Israel announces it has established control in the West Bank and Palestine, an Israeli intervention in Lebanon is rumoured to be in the offing. Some now notice that missile and rocket fire from Hezbollah and Iran has been slowly increasing in quantity and accuracy.
Day Six. President Ahmadinejad emerges in Iran, widely believed to have been killed in the original attack, his re-appearance on Iranian TV sparks new anti western rioting throughout the Muslim world. Indonesia, Egypt, and Algeria (among others) declare martial law. Iran declares war on the United States, Iraq does the same within hours. Throughout the world Shia and Sunni clerics and leaders bury the hatchet and announce the expulsion of “the Zionist forces” from the Middle East. This time Ahmadinejad is quite explicit, he is calling for the utter destruction of Israel, the time for regime change is over. Taliban forces are reported to be marching unopposed into some Afghan towns, Karzais western backed troops fleeing or even joining them, western air power fully occupied defending America’s now besieged bases in Iraq.
Day Seven. American wakes up to the news that Al Qaeda has detonated a crude “dirty bomb” in Duluth, apparently smuggled in from Canada. The damage and casualties are minor, trivial really, but the media goes wild, within hours there is anti Muslim and anti liberal rioting in a dozen major US cities. That evening Bush declares martial law, gasoline rationing, the suspension of the constitution, and national conscription. Before the TV news and Internet are shut down the last thing Americans see is the American embassies burning in Turkey and Egypt.
It gets worse from there. Is this a likely scenario? Dear God I hope not. Is it possible? Certainly. Is it likely? Beats me. Sweet dreams everyone!
(The above image is claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law. It is not being used for profit and is central to illustrating the post. Credit: Daniel ©2005-2007 *I-NetGraFX)