Countdown to war with Iran begins?
Uh, while Americans are watching the national dog and pony show (aka the US elections) there are some very disturbing things going on regarding Iran and the possibility of a US attack on same. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but at some point coincidence becomes hard to swallow. At this point…I’m choking on the coincidences.
First is the long awaited new Iranian oil bourse, it’s opening within days. An oil bourse is basically a market where oil is traded. There’s three bourses operating now, in the North Sea, Texas, and Dubai. All three of them deal for oil in US dollars. The Iranian bourse will only accept Euros. At a time when the dollar is already weak, this can’t be a good thing. In fact Iran stopped accepting dollars for its oil late last December. Guess what other country that starts with an “I” stopped accepting US dollars for its oil…and was invaded six months later?
Second, gee, several undersea communication cables have been “accidentally” cut in the Mediterranean and Middle East. And oddly enough, the country most effected by this is…Iran. Now that’s hell of a coincidence, nu? There’s two reasons to suspect that could be a prelude to war. The first would be to prevent Iranian bloggers from posting picture of US bombing to the world, that caused Israel no small problem in their abortive war against Lebanon. Secondly would be to prevent Iran from retaliating with some sort of Internet based attack. I mean, we’re talking four cables in two days??? (We’re up to five this morning!)
Thirdly, the head of the USA’s intelligence service just announced that Iran may be able to make a nuclear weapon within a year. Yerp, two months after a comprehensive intelligence report concluded that Iran abandoned their nuclear ambitions years ago, here’s National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell telling the Senate that the Iranians may be able to build a bomb by 2009. Combined with Iran’s launching of it’s space program on Monday, there is also a lot of talk in Israel about a possible war with Iran.
This is frankly a little scary. The sea cable cuts especially. Since it will take a few weeks to repair these cuts, and in fact workarounds are likely already being implemented by Iranian bloggers and Iranian counter-intelligence I would expect the attack would be sooner rather than later to take advantage of maximum Internet disruption. Maybe I’m going out on a limb here, but as I read these portents…I’m going to say there’s a 50% chance of a US attack on Iran within the next ten days. If nothing happens in the next ten days, I think the odds start to drop rapidly.
Then I suppose the odds of war with Iran will go up again as the election nears. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if they “caught” OBL just before the election, propelling McCain to victory. (If you look close at OBL’s corpse, you’ll be able to see the freezer burn.) I’ll go out on another limb here, I’m predicting McCain as the next US president. Still, fall is a long ways away and a lot could happen between now and then.
Like I keep saying, 2008 sure looks like it’s going to be an interesting year.
Update 1: Well, apparently these cut cables have delayed the opening of the Iranian oil bourse. Again, coincidence, or does this further tie this together? Seems like a lot of risk and trouble just to buy a little time. Stay tuned.
Update 2: It’s been pointed out that the USS Jimmy Carter, a new nuclear “special forces” submarine is more or less designed for cutting undersea cables, and it ain’t sitting in port anywhere apparently.
Update 3: As intothefray points out, this does not seem as aimed at Iran as is being reported by some. It is causing economic problems throughout the Middle east and South Asia. Could this be economic warfare waged by Iran or another party? Or, more sinisterly, a plot by Iran or someone else to do this as a distraction while final preparations for…something…a first strike, a terror attack, a false flag terror attack are underway? Whatever is going on, you better believe intelligence analysts all over the globe are looking at it. Is there something they aren’t supposed to be looking at?
Update 4: This article makes a good case that this may be related to intelligence gathering rather than preparation for an attack.
(The above image is claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law. It is not being used for profit and is central to illustrating the post. Credit: Iranian TV. )