Doug's Darkworld

War, Science, and Philosophy in a Fractured World.

Countdown to war with Iran begins?

with 11 comments

iran_rocket.jpg

Uh, while Americans are watching the national dog and pony show (aka the US elections) there are some very disturbing things going on regarding Iran and the possibility of a US attack on same. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but at some point coincidence becomes hard to swallow. At this point…I’m choking on the coincidences.

First is the long awaited new Iranian oil bourse, it’s opening within days. An oil bourse is basically a market where oil is traded. There’s three bourses operating now, in the North Sea, Texas, and Dubai. All three of them deal for oil in US dollars. The Iranian bourse will only accept Euros. At a time when the dollar is already weak, this can’t be a good thing. In fact Iran stopped accepting dollars for its oil late last December. Guess what other country that starts with an “I” stopped accepting US dollars for its oil…and was invaded six months later?

Second, gee, several undersea communication cables have been “accidentally” cut in the Mediterranean and Middle East. And oddly enough, the country most effected by this is…Iran. Now that’s hell of a coincidence, nu? There’s two reasons to suspect that could be a prelude to war. The first would be to prevent Iranian bloggers from posting picture of US bombing to the world, that caused Israel no small problem in their abortive war against Lebanon. Secondly would be to prevent Iran from retaliating with some sort of Internet based attack. I mean, we’re talking four cables in two days??? (We’re up to five this morning!)

Thirdly, the head of the USA’s intelligence service just announced that Iran may be able to make a nuclear weapon within a year. Yerp, two months after a comprehensive intelligence report concluded that Iran abandoned their nuclear ambitions years ago, here’s National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell telling the Senate that the Iranians may be able to build a bomb by 2009. Combined with Iran’s launching of it’s space program on Monday, there is also a lot of talk in Israel about a possible war with Iran.

This is frankly a little scary. The sea cable cuts especially. Since it will take a few weeks to repair these cuts, and in fact workarounds are likely already being implemented by Iranian bloggers and Iranian counter-intelligence I would expect the attack would be sooner rather than later to take advantage of maximum Internet disruption. Maybe I’m going out on a limb here, but as I read these portents…I’m going to say there’s a 50% chance of a US attack on Iran within the next ten days. If nothing happens in the next ten days, I think the odds start to drop rapidly.

Then I suppose the odds of war with Iran will go up again as the election nears. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if they “caught” OBL just before the election, propelling McCain to victory. (If you look close at OBL’s corpse, you’ll be able to see the freezer burn.) I’ll go out on another limb here, I’m predicting McCain as the next US president. Still, fall is a long ways away and a lot could happen between now and then.

Like I keep saying, 2008 sure looks like it’s going to be an interesting year.

Update 1: Well, apparently these cut cables have delayed the opening of the Iranian oil bourse. Again, coincidence, or does this further tie this together? Seems like a lot of risk and trouble just to buy a little time. Stay tuned.

Update 2: It’s been pointed out that the USS Jimmy Carter, a new nuclear “special forces” submarine is more or less designed for cutting undersea cables, and it ain’t sitting in port anywhere apparently.

Update 3: As intothefray points out, this does not seem as aimed at Iran as is being reported by some. It is causing economic problems throughout the Middle east and South Asia. Could this be economic warfare waged by Iran or another party? Or, more sinisterly, a plot by Iran or someone else to do this as a distraction while final preparations for…something…a first strike, a terror attack, a false flag terror attack are underway? Whatever is going on, you better believe intelligence analysts all over the globe are looking at it. Is there something they aren’t supposed to be looking at?

Update 4: This article makes a good case that this may be related to intelligence gathering rather than preparation for an attack. 

(The above image is claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law. It is not being used for profit and is central to illustrating the post. Credit: Iranian TV. )

 

Written by unitedcats

February 6, 2008 at 10:43 am

Posted in Iran, War, World

11 Responses

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  1. No argument, this is disturbing.

    Michael

    February 6, 2008 at 12:03 pm

  2. Add Iran & Venezuela commit to end imperialism on the 5th and Russia “concerned” over rocket launch. The ’08 possibilities are bigger than the US. Also I’m not an economist but the trade system that benefits a country we don’t get oil from and the nations that do being intrinsically linked to the $ for other reasons is tragic how ?

    in2thefray

    February 6, 2008 at 12:18 pm

  3. what about the aliens?

    did they build the pyramids?

    underdog

    February 6, 2008 at 2:16 pm

  4. underdog,

    If you are expecting us to believe aliens did the cable cutting, it is unlikely…

    Cutting cables has a history in warfare dating to ww1 when the British cut german sea cables.

    And let’s be intellectually honest, 5 cables in as many days? Come on folks! Or are you all too busy planning spending your $600 Bush (loan) “gift” to do some critical thinking… wake up

    et

    February 6, 2008 at 5:02 pm

  5. Here’s a twist even hough I hate conspiracy thinking. IRNA and other sources states Iran is NOT experiencing any issues. India and UAE are. Maybe Iranians are doing the cutting. India experienced a number of issues that went worldwide. Tech support and online tax services as well as general customer service. Is that an example of economic terrorism/espionage ?

    in2thefray

    February 6, 2008 at 6:06 pm

  6. Interesting thoeries Doug. Although I don’t think US has the resources to attack Iran now. Its economy is in disaster and Iraq was has drained it so much. How will the senete approve the war, it is majority democrats.

    BTW, the internet services in India did not get disrupted in a big. I could not access the net for one evening, thats all.

    archanaraghuram

    February 7, 2008 at 3:05 am

  7. There is one small problem with your theory – Iran has net connection. They have some network issues – but the internet is still accessable.

    Disclaimer: I read that fact from multiple source on the net – I do NOT have a first report.

    Binny V A

    February 7, 2008 at 3:20 am

  8. We’ll see, people have started stupider wars. I sure hope I’m wrong, but I’m not the only one worried about this by any means:

    http://www.alternet.org/audits/76241/

    unitedcats

    February 7, 2008 at 7:45 am

  9. I noticed the Wall Street Journal is talking down the conspiracy… Meaning it is actually quite likely.
    The WSJ is a Faux News source …
    Please people, think for yourselves.
    What are the chances of this happening by coincidence? If your in the Fox news camp, Ive got a bridge for sale! Sheesh

    et

    February 7, 2008 at 9:40 am

  10. I’m not even sure what to say at this point except that I’ve been documenting one pretext after another as a tissue of lies by this administration and the military propagandists. The Iranians used to call America the Great Satan. I would hope we wouldn’t try to live up to that name.

    Michael

    February 7, 2008 at 11:49 am

  11. […] have been updating my Countdown to War with Iran page as new ideas and information crop up. I’m still very worried that Bush will indeed attack […]


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