Doug's Darkworld

War, Science, and Philosophy in a Fractured World.

Is it War Yet?

with 6 comments

I apologize for not being able to blog recently, there’s lots going on in the world, but alas, my Internet service as failed me miserably. We may very well be seeing the beginning of a world revolution on the streets of Cairo, and the only source of “news” I have most days is my television. Kinda like losing your glasses at the start of a sightseeing tour, I can make out dim shapes but that’s about it. On the other hand, hearing all the utter crap being spewed by the various “experts” in the mainstream media is heartening. I can do better than that, and I bet I do judging from the thoughtful educated comments I get.

So, since I don’t have time for in depth posts, here’s some wild speculation about how this is all going to turn out. OK, maybe it’s not that wild, I do actually know something about history and the region, but as I am sure I’ve said before, predicting the future is a fool’s game. If two months ago someone had suggested that millions of Egyptians would be taking to the streets in an attempt to oust Mubarak, I, and virtually every one else on the planet, would have said “not bloody likely.” Speculation about the future is always wild … but it can be lots of fun.

Well, option one is the West gets behind the democracy movement in Egypt and elsewhere, and does everything it can to support the nascent democratic governments that spring up. I mean, without the west’s support, most of the world’ dictators would be toast. Simultaneously the west would also have to launch a massive program to cut their dependence on foreign oil, since the free countries that would emerge in the Middle East would insist that the pofits from oil be re-invested in their countries, not the west. There would be some hardship and disruption at first no doubt, but in the long run it would be a good thing. Terrorism would decline over time as the grievances that have driven so many to terror would be addressed. And as education and wealth increased in former dictatorships, the market for western goods and services would blossom. Prosperity is not a zero sum game, there more prosperity there is in the world, the more prosperity that would create. Yeah, we would have to pay more for gas, but the increased trade and development in the world would only be good for the US and western economy in the long run.

Sadly, the chances of that happening are about zero. The west’s governments are about protecting the wealth of big corporations and the ultra-rich … no matter what the costs to everyone else, including their own populations. So there’s no chance the west will encourage true democracy and self-determination to spread throughout the world. It would really cut into oil and arms industry profits, enough said. It’s possible the west will finesse the establishment of faux democracies in Egypt and elsewhere, that’s certainly what they are going to try and do. A seamless transition into compliant western boot-licking “democracies” would be their wish. I’m pretty sure the cat is way to far out of the bag for that to fly though. The people of the world are more sophisticated, educated, and informed than ever in history, the era when they will be happy with lip service democracy and promises appears to be drawing to a close.

No, I fear something much uglier is in the offing. War. Big war. A big war with multiple purposes. To seize direct control of energy assets that are “threatened” by all this “instability,” including oil fields, pipelines, ports, the Suez canal, etc. And of course to install compliant quisling regimes in said countries. At the same time I fear that this will be used as an excuse to “transfer” millions of people out of Europe, the USA, and Israel’s occupied territories. This of course wold be ethnic cleansing by any other name, since the people so transferred would be Muslim in the case of Europe and Palestine, and Latino in the USA. And when it’s all over, no more “problems” with minorities or unemployment in the west, our oil supplies assured, and the Palestinian issue “solved” once and for all.

That at least would be the plan. The reality, God only knows. Which means, no one knows. The larger a war is, the less predictable its results. That’s never stopped anyone from starting big wars before, especially when they think they have “no choice.” And sadly when it comes to the ultra rich, anything is better than forgoing their power and profits. So in short, I think the west will do everything in it’s power to subvert or end this nascent movement for democracy and freedom in Egypt and elsewhere. And if it gets to the point where countries are truly declaring independence (and seizing assets such as oil fields and the Suez Canal,) we will see outright invasion and intervention along the lines of Iraq and Afghanistan. They’ll do it right this time of course, Afghanistan and Iraq were failures becasue we didn’t try hard enough. Snort.

Hang onto your hats people, this is going to get a lot scarier before it gets any better.

(The above image is claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law, and I’m pretty sure it’s public domain to boot. It’s American Stuart tanks operating in North Africa in World War Two. Here’s hoping we don’t see American tanks in North Africa anytime soon.)

 

 

 

 

Written by unitedcats

February 7, 2011 at 4:35 pm

Posted in History, Politics, Propaganda, War, World

Tagged with , ,

6 Responses

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  1. I don’t think you are too pessimistic. OK, I don’t see a big new war in the making, but the stability of the region is surely at risk.
    The biggest problem of most Arabic states are the huge numbers of unemployed youth. That isn’t going away if the government changes, there are not enough jobs and education is expensive. They want a future and they want it now.
    But sadly, as you said, the West isn’t doing anything. Lethargy at its best. The USA is the only power that could change something, but that would need huge wads of money and a long term strategy. Which just isn’t going to happen.
    The people will still be there without jobs and hope. With or without Mubarak, with or without democracy, decent economic growth is needed. With democracy there would be the faint chance that more people could benefit, instead of only the ruling clan. But that’s seems rather utopian, too.
    A political climate like this can lead to anything, including a second Somalia.
    And I sure as hell don’t want to pay THAT bill.

    jm

    February 7, 2011 at 6:18 pm

    • Seems our economic model is 80% of the problem right off the bat. Everything we need to get done people say we can’t afford, like education and basically anything outside of “national defense” (a misnomer if there ever was one). When the few speak about fresh innovation for creating sustainable communities, the many pipe up with the argument that profits take higher precedence than purpose. Might be a fantastic idea, but if it isn’t profitable then it’s placed on the back-burner. Profit wins, always. This short-sighted view is screwing us all up.

      As for Egypt, I know they receive the second highest amount of U.S. foreign aid, second only to Israel. We pour money into that country, but not to better it. No. The U.S. isn’t in the business of bettering other countries. We are, however, in the weapons business, that being the only industry we haven’t outsourced yet. We instigate and supply arms to all sides. We support dictators abroad who cooperate with our strategic military interests. We most certainly aren’t a peace-keeping nation, and why? Because there’s apparently not enough profit in peace.

      ProphetBob

      February 8, 2011 at 9:13 pm

      • You nailed the current economic model. Americas current export product #1 is inflation. Maybe the main cause for the protests.
        Aid to Egypt is a joke until now. You have a ruling clan that occupies every important position in the country. Aid isn’t going anywhere without a huge part ending in Mubaraks pockets. And military help never fed anyone. What I was talking about was economic aid. The joke is if the youth has jobs, you probably kill the whole terrorism thing. You have to understand the Arabic mindset. A young man without a job isn’t going to marry, he will never be accepted as a husband by the parents of a girl.
        Why do you think the Muslim brotherhood is doing so much social work and has such a good reputation to help people? Because nobody else does. We, the west, have a unique chance to actually improve our reputation in the Arabic world and we not only do not seize it, no, we do the exact opposite, still clinging to the despots. And if we reduce the root of terrorism that wouldn’t be so bad either.
        As you said, we are in the weapon business and who needs weapons if there’s no enemy? So we keep our enemies at an arms length and our own people with fear mongering in line. Brave new world.

        jm

        February 9, 2011 at 4:17 am

  2. i’m guessing Marx’s timing was off. despotism, feudalism, capitalism, and now communism? it’d be a hell of an excuse to send troops in, but the much older population of the U.S. would almost undoubtly support it.

    Ryan

    February 7, 2011 at 11:07 pm

    • Love the Blog!
      What do you think China is going to do about this situation? I can picture them starting a war with the US as an ally to secure the oil. Ultimate goal: Kill off a lot of those pesky 18-25 year olds (American, Arab and Chinese)

      Douglas Macary

      February 8, 2011 at 6:28 pm

  3. I think China would be perfectly happy to sit back and watch the west go to war with half the Arab world. Every new Iraq or Afghanistan just is one day close to complete bankruptcy in the west. The only thing they would do militarily if they thought they could … would be to reunite their wayward province Taiwan with China. —Doug

    unitedcats

    February 8, 2011 at 7:54 pm


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